Australia’s economy in 2025 is walking a fine line. GDP growth came in at just 1.3% last year, barely keeping up with inflation, and while wage growth has picked up, productivity hasn’t. Interest rates have started to drop, bringing some relief for borrowers, but raising questions about inflation and long-term housing affordability.
For property buyers and investors, these shifts aren’t just headlines; they influence borrowing power, housing supply, and price movements. In this article, we’ll break down what the economic signals mean for the property market and what to watch if you’re planning to buy or invest this year.
GDP Growth vs Inflation – Why It Matters to Buyers
Australia’s GDP growth for 2024 finished at 1.3%, with forecasts suggesting a modest lift to 2% in 2025. At face value, that’s progress—but when inflation runs higher than GDP, the economy isn’t growing in real terms. In simple terms, the cost of living is rising faster than the country’s output.
For property buyers, this mismatch can have real effects. When economic growth slows, consumer confidence often takes a hit. That can lead to fewer listings, longer decision times, and delays in construction activity. Investors may hold off, and sellers might become more cautious, especially in areas that rely on steady growth to justify pricing.
When GDP growth lags behind inflation, the market can feel stuck. Buyers looking to time their move or assess suburb trends need to factor in broader economic sentiment as part of their strategy.
Productivity & Wage Growth – A Hidden Weakness
Wages in Australia have been growing at around 3.4%, giving workers some relief from rising costs. But behind that headline is a growing concern: productivity isn’t keeping pace. In simple terms, people are being paid more without producing more.
Much of the job growth in recent years has come from government roles, which don’t always drive economic output in the same way the private sector does. This imbalance has flow-on effects across the property sector.
Here’s how it plays out for buyers and investors:
-
Construction delays: With fewer private sector workers delivering real output, the building industry struggles to meet demand, slowing down new housing supply.
-
Inflated service costs: As wages rise without a matching increase in efficiency, the cost of labour-intensive services - like building, renovating or inspections- climbs.
-
Lower investor returns: Investors face tighter margins when costs rise and housing delivery slows, particularly in areas where affordability is already stretched.
For property buyers, understanding these underlying trends helps explain why some markets feel stalled and why costs keep rising; even when the broader economy looks stable on paper.
Unemployment at 4.1% – What’s Beneath the Surface
On paper, Australia’s unemployment rate of 4.1% suggests a strong job market. In economic terms, that’s considered close to full employment. But those figures don’t tell the full story.
Several factors are at play beneath the surface:
-
An ageing population means more people are leaving the workforce permanently
-
Early retirement has increased, especially post-COVID, reducing available labour
-
Quiet quitting: doing the bare minimum, has become more common, affecting output
Together, these trends are reshaping the workforce. While jobs may be filled, productivity is often lower. And in industries like construction and trades, homebuyers and investors can feel this slowdown directly.
A less productive labour market leads to:
-
Fewer tradies on site, which pushes out build times
-
Delays in project completions, affecting new supply
-
Increased costs for buyers, as demand outpaces capacity
For those looking to purchase or invest in property, especially off-the-plan or in developing areas, these workforce trends can affect both timelines and budgets.
Property Supply – Still the Biggest Issue
Australia’s housing shortage continues to put pressure on prices. Demand is outpacing supply in many regions, and while construction is often flagged as the solution, the delivery of new homes remains slow.
Policy changes and government building targets are regularly announced, but their implementation is inconsistent. Shifting timelines, labour shortages, and unclear funding make it difficult to predict when or where supply will actually improve.
For buyers, this means asking the right questions before making a move:
-
Is this suburb under development pressure? Suburbs with stalled or overpromised projects may see delayed capital growth.
-
Are delays priced in? New developments may advertise attractive price points, but slow delivery could reduce value in the short term.
Limited supply can lead to bidding pressure, fewer options, and longer wait times. Understanding where supply is likely to increase and where it’s stuck can make a big difference in finding a smart deal.
Interest Rates – Short-Term Relief or Long-Term Risk?
The Reserve Bank has already made one interest rate cut, and the market expects more to follow. For homebuyers, lower rates can feel like a green light; borrowing becomes cheaper, loan serviceability improves, and competition tends to rise.
But cheaper credit comes with its own risks.
When rates fall, more people are able to enter the market, and that often pushes prices up. While this can benefit sellers and existing owners, it can make affordability worse for first-home buyers and investors looking for value.
There’s also the risk of reigniting inflation. If too much money re-enters the economy too quickly, the pressure on prices across goods, services, and housing could grow again, reversing the benefits of recent inflation control efforts.
For property buyers, this makes timing and strategy even more important. Acting early could secure a better deal, but jumping in without understanding how rate cuts affect prices may lead to overpaying in a fast-moving market.
Energy Prices and Inflation – A Double-Edged Factor
Energy costs affect nearly every part of the economy, from household budgets to construction timelines. A drop in energy prices could ease cost-of-living pressures, reduce business expenses, and make building homes more affordable.
For property buyers, this could mean:
-
Cheaper builds, helping increase housing supply
-
Lower inflation, which supports more stable interest rates
-
Improved affordability, if construction costs decline
But whether energy prices fall depends less on market competition and more on government direction. Policy decisions around fossil fuels, infrastructure investment, and energy mix will shape the path forward.
If energy costs stay high, they’ll continue to drive up inflation and keep pressure on construction budgets. For buyers watching new developments or planning renovations, the role of energy in overall affordability can’t be ignored.
What It All Means for Property Buyers in 2025
Economic conditions in 2025 present both opportunities and risks for homebuyers and investors. On one hand, interest rate cuts and cautious sentiment across the market could work in your favour.
You may benefit from:
-
Lower borrowing costs, which improve your buying power in the short term
-
More vendor competition, especially in suburbs where sellers are keen to move
But at the same time, some challenges remain.
Watch for:
-
Delays in housing supply, driven by labour shortages and slow construction pipelines
-
Price rebounds in popular areas, where demand picks up faster than supply
Buyers who take time to understand how economic trends influence local markets are more likely to make well-timed decisions. The gap between opportunity and risk in 2025 may come down to preparation, timing, and suburb-level insights.
Conclusion
Australia’s economy is moving cautiously in 2025, and a soft landing remains the preferred outcome. Interest rates are easing, employment remains steady, and government policy will play a big role in what happens next.
For property buyers, this is a time to stay alert. Conditions could shift quickly, both in your favour and against it. Being prepared, understanding local supply risks, and staying close to economic signals will help you make smarter moves.
If you’re planning to buy this year, speak with a qualified buyer’s agent. They can help you spot value, assess suburb trends, and secure the right property before the market moves again.
Work With AbodeFinder
At AbodeFinder, we help homebuyers and investors make smarter property decisions using a mix of expert advice, suburb-level data, and AI-powered tools.
Whether you’re buying your first home, searching for high-growth suburbs, or building a long-term investment strategy, we guide you every step of the way — from suburb selection through to negotiation and settlement.
- Data-backed property advice
- Custom suburb and investment reports
- Personalised support from licensed buyer agents
Looking to buy in 2025?
Visit abodefinder.com.au and book a free discovery call to plan your next move with confidence.
